Od olimpijskih brzic do varnejšega sobivanja z vodo

V novi epizodi vladnega GOVSI podkasta je gostoval hidrolog Janez Polajnar z Agencije Republike Slovenije za okolje, dolgoletni strokovnjak za spremljanje in napovedovanje hidroloških razmer. Pogovor je bil namenjen pomenu pravočasnih opozoril, izkušnjam ob poplavah avgusta 2023 in prilagajanju na vse pogostejše vremenske ekstreme.

Polajnar se že več kot tri desetletja ukvarja s spremljanjem voda, analizami hidroloških razmer in opozarjanjem pred nevarnimi pojavi. Letos je prejel tudi najvišje priznanje javnim uslužbencem za izjemne delovne uspehe, in sicer za prispevek k razvoju napovedovanja hidroloških razmer v Sloveniji ter za strokovno in povezovalno delovanje v poplavnih dogodkih.

Kot je poudaril, ima hidrološka služba pomembno vlogo pri varnosti ljudi in premoženja. Njeno delo vključuje meritve na terenu, analize, pripravo hidroloških modelov in vsakodnevno napovedovanje razmer. Informacije, ki jih zagotavlja, so pomembne tudi za gospodarstvo, kmetijstvo, energetiko, turizem in upravljanje z vodami.

V pogovoru se je Polajnar ozrl tudi na najhujše poplave v zgodovini Slovenije avgusta 2023. Pojasnil je, da so bile razmere posebne že pred samim dogodkom, saj so bile rečne struge zaradi obilnih padavin že močno napolnjene. Nato je v noči s 3. na 4. avgust ponekod padlo več kot 200 litrov dežja na kvadratni meter v manj kot šestih urah.

Poseben izziv pri opozarjanju ostajajo hudourniške poplave, ki lahko nastanejo zelo hitro, tudi v manj kot eni uri. Zato so ključni pravočasna opozorila, dobro sodelovanje med institucijami in samozaščitno ravnanje prebivalcev.

Polajnar je poudaril, da se naravnih pojavov ne da preprečiti, lahko pa se nanje bolje pripravimo. Pri tem so pomembni sistem zgodnjega opozarjanja, povezovanje z zaščito in reševanjem, urejanje prostora ter zavedanje, da moramo vodi nameniti dovolj prostora.

V času podnebnih sprememb postajajo zanesljive informacije še pomembnejše. Agencija Republike Slovenije za okolje zato opozorila in napovedi objavlja prek uradnih kanalov in družbenih omrežij, javnosti pa priporoča spremljanje preverjenih virov. Med koristnimi orodji je tudi Atlas okolja, kjer so dostopne karte poplavne nevarnosti in ogroženosti.

»Naš največji cilj je, da ob silovitih in nepredvidljivih poplavah nimamo človeških žrtev,« je v pogovoru poudaril Polajnar. Dodal je, da je vlaganje v preventivo, kadre in tehnološki razvoj naložba v varnost ljudi in družbe.

Prisluhnite pogovoru. Vladni GOVSI podkast lahko spremljate tudi na vseh aplikacijah za podkaste in na vladnem kanalu YouTube.

[ENGLISH VERSION] 

From Olympic Rapids to Safer Coexistence with Water

The latest episode of the government GOVSI podcast features hydrologist Janez Polajnar from the Slovenian Environment Agency, a long-standing expert in monitoring and forecasting hydrological conditions. The conversation focused on the importance of timely warnings, the experience of the August 2023 floods, and adapting to increasingly frequent extreme weather events.

Polajnar has been involved in water monitoring, the analysis of hydrological conditions and warnings of dangerous phenomena for more than three decades. This year, he also received the highest award for civil servants for outstanding work achievements, namely for his contribution to the development of hydrological forecasting in Slovenia and for his expert and collaborative work during flood events.

As he pointed out, the hydrological service plays an important role in protecting people and property. Its work includes field measurements, analyses, the preparation of hydrological models, and daily forecasting of conditions. The information it provides is also important for the economy, agriculture, energy, tourism and water management.

In the conversation, Polajnar also reflected on the worst floods in Slovenia’s history, which occurred in August 2023. He explained that the conditions had already been unusual before the event itself, as river channels were already very full due to heavy rainfall. Then, on the night of 3 to 4 August, more than 200 litres of rain per square metre fell in some places in less than six hours.

Flash floods, which can develop very quickly, even in less than an hour, remain a particular challenge when it comes to warnings. Timely alerts, good cooperation between institutions and self-protective action by residents are therefore crucial.

Polajnar stressed that natural phenomena cannot be prevented, but we can prepare for them better. Important elements in this are the early warning system, cooperation with civil protection and disaster relief services, spatial planning, and the awareness that water must be given enough space.

In the era of climate change, reliable information is becoming even more important. The Slovenian Environment Agency therefore publishes warnings and forecasts through official channels and social media, and recommends that the public follow verified sources. One useful tool is the Environmental Atlas, which provides maps of flood hazard and flood risk.

“Our greatest goal is to ensure that violent and unpredictable floods do not claim human lives,” Polajnar emphasised in the conversation. He added that investment in prevention, staff and technological development is an investment in the safety of people and society.

The government podcast GOVSI is available on all podcast platforms and on the Government YouTube channel.

Transcript

Voditeljica: Pozdravljeni in dobrodošli v novi epizodi vladnega podkasta GOVSI, ki ga za vas pripravljamo na Uradu Vlade RS za komuniciranje. Z vami sem Petra Prešeren Golob.  Voda ima v Sloveniji posebno mesto. Ni samo naravni vir, brez vode si ne predstavljamo našega razvoja, zdravja, varnosti in kakovosti življenja. Pa tudi ne ohranjanja okolja, precejšnjega dela turizma in športnega udejstvovanja. Hkrati pa je voda lahko tudi ena največjih naravnih groženj.

Velik del škode ob naravnih nesrečah je pri nas povezan z vodo, zlasti s hudourniškimi poplavami in z njimi povezanimi zemeljskimi plazovi, zato so pravočasne in zanesljive hidrometeorološke napovedi ključne za varnost vseh nas naših domov in premoženja ter celotne skupnosti. 

Gost današnje epizode je strokovnjak, ki se že več kot tri desetletja ukvarja s tem, kako vodo in njeno moč razumeti ter nanjo pravočasno opozarjati.  Z nami je izjemno zanimiv sogovornik, prepoznavan obraz Agencije RS za okolje hidrolog Janez Polajnar, ki je letos prejel tudi najvišje priznanje javnim uslužbencem za izjemne delovne uspehe. Lepo pozdravljeni.

Iztočnica za današnji pogovor je skorajšnja tretja obletnica najhujših poplav v zgodovini Slovenije, ampak začela bova malce drugače. Da se nekoliko ogrejeva par kratkih vprašanj, da preveriva, kaj vam je ljubše. Led ali sneg?

Gost:  Sneg. 

Voditeljica: Morje ali reka?

Gost: Tu ste me pa našli … Kar oboje. 

Voditeljica: Slap ali brzica? 

Gost: Brzica. 

Voditeljica: Zmerno deževje ali sonce po nevihti?

Gost: Sonce po nevihti.  

Voditeljica: In za konec: priprava napovedi v pisarni ali terensko opazovanje? 

Gost: Lahko bi rekel kar priprava napovedi v pisarni. 

Voditeljica: Sem mislila, da bo mogoče zadnje vprašanje najtežje, pa se pri drugem niste znali odločiti. Torej, kot omenjeno, več kot 30 let izkušnej je za vami na področju spremljanja, preučevanja in analiziranja voda ter opozarjanja pred nevarnimi pojavi. Kaj vse počnete, ko niste pred kamerami?

Gost: Kot hidrolog … Torej, poklic hidrolog je precej razvejan poklic. Ko nismo pred kamero, takrat je običajno samo eden od nas, to je, bi rekel tisti vrhnji del vsega dela, ki ga opravimo pred tem. Sicer pa poklic hidrolog zajema dela, ki so povezana tako s terenskim delom, to pomeni izvajanje in pa priprava meritev na vodotokih. To delo predstavlja tudi analitično delo, ko analiziramo hidrološke razmere, ko pripravljamo tudi orodja, hidrološke modele, za napovedovanje pretokov, rek, razne analize statistike glede vodnatosti rek v Sloveniji. In pa seveda tudi napovedovanja, to je pa tista operativa, ko vsak dan, pravzaprav vse dni v letu, napovedujemo oziroma bdimo nad vodami in napovedujemo, kakšne bodo hidrološke razmere v Sloveniji.

Voditeljica: Hidrologija je zelo interdisciplinarno področje. Kakšne prednosti imate kot geograf pri spremljanju hidroloških razmer?

Gost: Ja, bi rekel, da neka taka širina, ne? Ker hidrologija oziroma napovedovanje pretokov rek, prognoza, je, bi rekel … Mi moramo biti kot neke vrste dvoživke, moramo poznati tako področje meteorologije kot hidrologije, zlasti pa geografija prispeva k temu da nudi širok vpogled v prostorske značilnosti Slovenije. Ker Slovenija je pač tako raznolika, da so dejansko te razlike v hidroloških sferah, različni deli Slovenije, zelo, bi rekel, res, zanimive in raznolike, in temu se je treba prilagoditi. No, in tu je geografija tista, ki ti da neko osnovo za boljše razumevanje hidroloških razmer.

Voditeljica: Kot omenjeno, s svojim strokovnim delom ste prispevali k vzpostavitvi sodobne službe za napovedovanje hidroloških razmer v Sloveniji. Ta hidrološka služba ni le opozarjanje pred naravno nesrečo. Kaj vse je njena vloga in dodana vrednost, potem tudi, recimo, za kmete prebivalce za gospodarstvo?

Gost: Glavna naloga je opozarjanje pred nevarnostmi in bdenje nad hidrološkimi razmerami. Seveda pa ponuja tudi informacije, kako upravljati z vodo in kako vodo izkoriščati za gospodarstvo, na primer za elektroenergetske objekte, za kmetijstvo v zvezi z namakanjem, na primer, za turizem v zvezi s plovbo po rekah, v zvezi s plovbo tudi po morju, nenazadnje. Tudi vodo obravnavamo kot pokrajinski element. Torej, na vseh področjih družbenega življenja so te informacije, ki jih s pomočjo analiz in pa seveda aktualnih podatkov, ki so neposredno dostopni, zagotavljamo širši javnosti in pa seveda strokovnim službam.

Voditeljica: Te vaše več desetletne izkušnje nam lahko dajo tudi nek zgodovinski vpogled. Kaj se je po vašem mnenju najbolj spremenilo pri napovedovanju in opozarjanju pred naravnimi nesrečami. A je bilo to znanje, tehnologija, morda način razmišljanja?

Gost: Lahko bi rekel, da kar oboje. V zadnjih 20. letih je tehnologija na tem področju res izredno napovedovala. Pričeli smo uporabljati najsodobnejše prognostične sisteme modele, povezujemo se z različnimi sorodnimi službami po Evropi in to nekako krepi to skupnost. Napovedovanja na področju meteorologije in hidrologije, po drugi strani pa tudi nekakšno zavedanje družbe, da smo v območju oziroma v času, ko se te podnebne spremembe vse bolj kažejo. Ravno to, bi rekel, zavedanje družbe, da moramo spremeniti tudi način, način razmišljanja o sobivanju z vodo se kaže v tem, da je pravzaprav ta razvoj, ki nam ga je prinesla tehnologija, in pa načina razmišljanja, so nas lahko, bi rekel, pripeljali na neko višjo raven kot pred desetletji.

Voditeljica: Veliko se v teh časih govori tudi o uporabi umetne inteligence. Se tudi ta že uporablja pri napovedovanju, modeliranju in podobno?

Gost: Ja, tudi pri nas že uporabljamo tehnike napovedovanja s pomočjo umetne inteligence. Vendar je so te tehnike zaenkrat pri nas še na poskusni dobi. To pomeni, da jih uporabljamo kot vzporedno orodje in jih preverjamo, začeli pa smo uporabljati metode umetne inteligence pri napovedovanju dinamike morja, tj. pri napovedovanju plimovanja morja in seveda s tem opozarjanja pred poplavami morja. No, v zadnjem času pa uporabljamo umetno inteligenco tudi pri napovedovanju pretokov rek.

In kot rečeno, še vedno nekako bdimo nad tem, da kontroliramo rezultate in jih primerjamo s tistimi klasičnimi fizikalnimi modeli. 

Voditeljica: So zanesljivi?

Gost: Ja, v nekaterih situacijah da, v nekaterih pa ne. Torej umetna inteligenca ni vsemogoča, rabi nekaj časa, da se priuči vsem situacijam in je še vedno kot rečeno v testni fazi.

Voditeljica: Hude poplave pred 3 leti so izhodišča za najin današnji pogovor. Takrat smo na našem območju izkusili, kako pomembno je to pravočasno opozarjanje pred naravno nesrečo. Če še enkrat podoživite tiste dni, kaj vam je morda najbolj ostalo v spominu? Kaj vas je morda presenetilo, kaj bi lahko potekalo drugače?

Gost: To poletje leta 2023 je bilo posebno. Niso bile samo poplave, ki so se zgodile tisto noč, ampak celotno dogajanje se je začelo že v juliju. Namreč, mesec julij je bil izredno namočen. Spomnim se nevihtnih situacij že v sredini junija, pa potem proti koncu junija, ko so te nevihte pravzaprav se začele ustvarjati na drugem delu Evrope, torej v Franciji, v Švici, ena med njimi tudi na Korziki in so potem … Mi smo jih spremljali. Zjutraj smo jih zaznali, recimo, eno nevihto, ki se je vzpostavila na jugu Korzike in potem smo ji sledili 8 ur in čez 8 ur je bila pri nas. In ravno ta nevihta je takrat, mislim, da 1. avgusta prinesla tornado v Ilirski Bistrici. No, in te nevihte so se pojavljale, take močne nevihte z nalivi, pojavljale več dni v juliju. Namreč, takrat je bila vremenska situacija takšna, da je bilo sredozemsko območje z morjem močno pregreto. Voda v Tržaškem zalivu je imela okrog 30°C, severno od Alp pa je dolgo časa vztrajal hladen zrak. In to je bila taka močna ločnica med pregretim ozračjem in pa hladnim ozračjem. Zato so se na tem območju pogosto pojavljale močne padavine, ki so se z višinskimi vetrovi selile proti Sloveniji in v Sloveniji potem odlagale te padavine. No, in takrat sta se združila poletje in jesen, torej, poletni tip vremena z jesenskimi padavinami in pa seveda z jesenskim odtokom. Namreč, v tistem času pred poplavami so bile struge slovenskih rek praktično polne tako kot sredi jeseni ali pa sredi jeseni. 

In na te polne struge rek je potem prišla takšna značilna jesenska vremenska situacija v tisti noči s 3. na 4. avgust, ko je padlo ponekod več kot dvesto litrov dežja na kvadratni meter v manj kot 6 urah. To je to je bila ta posebnost - združenje poletne situacije, vremenske, in pa jesenske vodnatosti.

Voditeljica: Vas je takrat kaj posebej presenetilo? Vam je kaj posebej ostalo v spominu? 

Gost: Te poplave oziroma takšne vrste nenavadnih poplav smo pričakovali. Že nekaj dni vnaprej se je nakazovalo, da bo nekaj, da se bo zgodilo nekaj posebnega. Nismo pa vedeli točno, na kakšen način se bo manifestiralo. Presenetilo? Vsekakor magnituda pojava nas je presenetila. Ker takšnega pojava naša generacija ne pomni, tudi zapisov o takšnih pojavih nismo imeli, torej, to je bilo nekaj povsem novega. Vedeli smo, da bo nekaj posebnega, ampak kako točno se bo pa to odrazilo, pa nismo vedeli. No, in to je bilo morda tisto presenečenje, ki je bilo pa res izjemno.

Voditeljica: Takrat je velik del Slovenije ostal pod vodo. Razglašene so bile izredne razmere. Veliko institucij je sodelovalo, odločanje se je takrat preneslo na vladno raven. Kaj je to takrat pomenilo za ARSO, ki je tudi ob naravnih nesrečah manjših razsežnosti v prvih bojnih vrstah? Takrat je bilo ogromno nekega usklajevanja in sodelovanja, kajne?

Gost: Ja, ravno to, ko je Urad za komuniciranje prevzel določene stvari v svoje roke, smo dobili pravzaprav možnost tega povezovanja različnih inštitucij na ena mestu. Takrat se spomnim, da smo prirejali pogosto novinarske konference in smo imeli zaradi tega možnost, da povabimo različne institucije, ki so bile seveda takrat tangirane zaradi poplav, da lahko pojasnijo svoje poglede oziroma svoje napotke prebivalstvu. To je bila tista dodana vrednost, da smo iz ena točke, takrat so tiskovne konference potekale na Agenciji za okolje, lahko pravzaprav ljudem oziroma javnosti povedali vse relevantne informacije.

Voditeljica: In dejansko so vsi mediji vsaj javnost imela na ena mestu vse relevantne, zanesljive sogovornike. Omenili ste te, bom rekla, to presenetljivost teh poplav oziroma obseg. Hudourniške poplave so nepredvidljive, malo časa je za opozarjanje. Ali se da bolje napovedati take poplave, kot so bile v obsegu pred tremi leti? Ali gre za dogajanje, ki se ga ne da točno napovedati in se ga ne da obvladovati?

Gost: Nikoli ne bomo mogli dovolj natančno napovedati, zlasti ne hudourniški poplav. Te so še vedno najtrši oreh. Mi lahko dovolj natančno napovemo na primer poplave morja ali pa kraške poplave. Te se pojavljajo bolj zlagoma, so bolj predvidljive. Medtem ko hudourniške poplave pa dejansko lahko predvidimo tip, bi rekel, padavinskega vzorca, ki bo prišel nad naše kraje. To je nekje 36 do 24 ur pred dogodkom, ne moremo pa točno locirati porečja ali pa dela porečja, kjer se bo na tem majhnem območju zgodil hudourniški pojav. No, in zaradi tega potem opozorimo, približno seveda lociramo ta območja v Sloveniji, vendar pa zagotovo ne moremo reči - v tej dolini bo hudourniška poplava, v sosednji pa ne - ker je relief pri nas v Sloveniji tako raznolik in bogat, da so razvodnice zelo ostre, zato opozorimo rajše na hudourniške poplave na širšem območju, na več porečjih in potem seveda ob dogodku ali pa nekaj ur pred dogodkom pa že lahko bolj natančno lociramo, kje se bo hudourniška poplava zgodila. Je pa tako, da hudourniška poplava lahko nastane v do 20. minutah do ena ure ob intenzivnih padavinah. Torej, časa za opozarjanje je zelo malo.

Voditeljica: Ko ste ravno omenili opozarjanje – SI-Alarm je eno takšno orodje, ki je zagotovo zelo koristno pri obveščanju. Letos marca v času teh planiških poletov je bilo to močno neurje z vetrolomom in takrat smo ga tudi prvič uporabili v praksi. Kako ste sodelovali pri vzpostavljanju tega načina alarmiranja?

Gost: Ja, dejansko SI-ALARM je nekako podaljšek naših opozoril. V primeru, ko pri nas izdamo rdeče opozorilo, takrat se potem tudi uskladimo z Upravo za zaščito in reševanje. In v tem konkretnem primeru smo razglasili rdeče opozorilo pred močnimi sunki severnega vetra za različna območja Slovenije. No, in za potrebe SI-ALARMA smo potem pripravili spisek občin teh območij, na katerih je potem Uprava za zaščito in reševanje s pomočjo tehnologije SI_ALARM zagotovila sms sporočilo.

Voditeljica: Glede na to, da smo v zadnjih letih priča vse več tem ekstremnim vremenskim dogodkom in verjetno bo v prihodnosti tega še več glede na podnebne spremembe - ali vas skrbi, da če bo več teh opozoril si, da ljudje ne bodo več jemali tako resno?

Gost: Ja, tukaj je zelo tanka ločnica med tem, da zadeneš pravi čas, pravo opozorilo in da je opozorilo odvečno, kot mi pravimo. O tem tudi vodimo statistike vsako leto in imamo tudi indeks kakovosti, ki govori o tem, koliko natančni smo pri opozarjanju. Vedno je pa seveda potrebno skrbeti za to, da ta opozorila niso prepogosta, ne.  Zato običajno rdeče opozorilo, po nekih priporočilih Evropske unije meteo alarma, naj bi se izdalo enkrat letno oziroma, seveda, če je treba, tudi večkrat. Pa vendar - to so le redki dogodki, ko je izdano rdeče vremensko ali hidrološko opozorilo in takrat ga je pa seveda potrebno jemati zelo resno.

Voditeljica: In ko se zgodijo neki ti ekstremni hidrometeorološki pojavi, ki ogrožajo tudi življenja, je vaša služba nekako slalom na divjih vodah, če uporabim če kajakaški žargon? Glede na to, da ste nekoč bili trener državne reprezentance v kajaku in kanuju na divjih vodah in da ste v tej vlogi med drugim sodelovali tudi na olimpijskih igrah v Barceloni, kako pomembne so te izkušnje s takimi stresnimi dogodki? Nekako se zdi, ko komunicirate z javnostjo, da vedno komunicirate zelo jasno mirno. Koliko vam te izkušnje pomagajo?

Gost: Ja, moram reči, da kar precej. Namreč v vrhunskem športu velja, da je višek informacij neproduktiven. Torej, informacije, ki prihajajo od trenerja do tekmovalca morajo biti kratke, jasne in povedne. Vsak presežek, bi rekel, nekih razlag je takrat neproduktiven. Teh veščin sem se priučil v delovanju v vrhunskem športu in dejansko, ko imamo takšne razmere pri nas, recimo, tiskovno konferenco ali izdajo opozorila rdeče stopnje, imam občutek, kot da sem pred tekmovanjem. Bi rekel, da je način razmišljanja je podoben. To pomeni, da se osredotočiš na tisto res pomembno, kar imaš za povedati. Da odmisliš, bi rekel, sivi šum vpliva okolice in seveda, da se zaveš, da v tistem trenutku boš pripravil takšen odgovor, ki je v tem trenutku najbolj mogoč. In da za tabo stoji seveda ekipa kolegov, s katerimi smo skupaj pripravili vsebino,  in da za mano stoji tudi seveda institucija, to je Agencija za okolje in na tak način mislim, da je informacija, ki pride do javnosti, bolj učinkovita.

Voditeljica: Pisarno si delite še z ena zelo prepoznavnim medijskim obrazom z Branetom Gregorčičem. Oba poznamo, ker prinašata novice o vremenu, ki pa niso nujno vedno dobre novice - tako kot ste omenili, velikokrat so krizne situacije. Pa vendar sta zelo priljubljena v javnosti in zelo cenjena. Nekaj ste že omenili o uspešnosti te komunikacije. Kaj še vse upoštevate pri tem? Rekli ste, vse te šume se da na stran, jasna točna informacija …

Gost: Lahko bi rekel, da oba s kolegom Branetom Gregorčičem nekako živiva v službo, če se lahko tako izrazim. To pomeni, da so tudi najine prostočasne dejavnosti na nek način povezane - njegove z vremenom, moje bolj z vodami. In to je nek preplet, bi rekel. zasebnega in poslovnega življenja. Na nek način oba živiva s to tematiko, tudi ko nismo v službi. In morda je to tudi eden od razlogov, da nama kar gre.

Voditeljica: Omenili ste, da je v ozadju ogromno analiz, napovedi, modeliranja … Kako vse te podatke, ki so strokovno precej zapleteni za nas laike, pa vendarle znate predstaviti javnosti na razumljiv, laičen način?

Gost: Ja, saj to je pa običajno izziv. Moramo vedeti, da je ta napoved, ki jo nekdo prebere na radiu ali nekdo pove le tista smetana na vrhu torte. Zelo ozek oziroma ozek segment vsega, kar je treba, da pride do takšne napovedi. Tukaj je vključeno veliko število sodelavcev - od tistih, ki merijo, ki izvajajo meritve na terenu, do analitikov do teh, ki skrbijo za tehnično podporo na Agenciji, da pride na koncu do vremenske ali pa hidrološke napovedi. Ja, velik izziv nam je pa to, da pripravimo to hidrološko napoved na razumljiv način. Na razumljiv način, ki je razumen širšemu krogu ljudi. Seveda pripravljamo tudi napovedi ali pa opozorila za strokovne službe, ki so bolj specifične, vendar pa za splošno uporabo strmimo k temu, da je čim bolj poljuden tekst. 

Voditeljica: In to je precejšnja umetnost, a ne? 

Gost: Včasih res, ja. Včasih so situacije, tako sestavljene, kompleksne, da jih je težko ubesediti v nekaj stavkih. Ampak se da. 

Voditeljica: Večkrat ste ponovili, da ravno zaradi teh vremenskih sprememb, da bo tudi zaradi globalnega segrevanja in vpliva na vodni krog v Sloveniji ekstremnih pojavov vse več. In že letos smo videli, ne, ni nič drugače - najprej to neurje z vetrolomi, nedavno precejšnja suša …

Omenili ste, da so imele nekatere reke aprila zgodovinsko nizko pretoke, potem pa so prišli ledeni možje, prinesli močne nevihte z vetrom, ponekod tudi točo … Že letos se je začelo precej pestro, ne?

Gost: Ja, pravzaprav … Seveda, pestro. Ne bom rekel, da je to nekaj posebnega, da je to nekaj izjemnega, pa vendar, kar nas pravzaprav najbolj skrbi v tem času, je manjša količina snega v zadnjih letih. Ker manjša količina snega pomeni tudi manjše zaloge vode za potem, za poletne sušne mesece. Kakšno zimo je bolje, kakšno slabše. Letos je bila zima nekje v povprečju ali pa nekoliko pod povprečjem. Ko pa govorimo o sušnih pretokih ali pa nizkih pretokih, so bili letos spomladi zelo izraziti. Nizek pretok na primer reke Mure, ki ima v glavnem zaledje v sosednji Avstriji, tam pa je bilo letošnjo zimo res malo snega na območjih v porečju Mure, od koder se Mura tudi napaja. No, pa tudi drugod po Sloveniji, pravzaprav, smo beležili celo zimo vse do maja, do danes, pravzaprav, do teh dni podpovprečne pretoke rek. Kot rečeno, 40 odstotkov vode se je pretakalo le v mesecu aprilu. Bomo videli, kako bo to čez poletje, pa vendar, to pomanjkanje vode je včasih celo bolj zaskrbljujoče. Ker to pa še ne pomeni, da se potem ne morejo zgoditi tudi hudourniške poplave. Te se vedno lahko zgodijo, tudi če je zelo malo vode, lahko pride do hudourniških poplav ob intenzivnih nalivih.

Voditeljica: Ali je ta napoved relativno zgodnje suše že spomladi, potem tudi slaba popotnica za poletje? Si lahko potem obetamo na podlagi tega tudi manj vode poleti?

Gost: V tem trenutku tega ne moremo zagotovo trditi. Dejstvo pa je, da določeni meterološki modeli, ki so dolgoročni, njihova zanesljivost pa seveda ni pravzaprav velika, pa vseeno nakazujejo možnost, da bi bilo letošnje poletje za približno stopinjo toplejše od običajnega in tudi nekoliko manj namočeno od običajnega. To pomeni, da so neki indici, da bi lahko bili soočeni z vročinskimi valovi, manj padavinami. Glede na to, da pa nismo zelo bogato založeni z vodo, v tem času obstaja tudi možnost, da se bomo soočili s poletnimi sušnimi razmerami.

Voditeljica: Kaj je po vašem mnenju ključno, da se kot država, posamezniki, družba, da ustrezno pripravimo, da se usposobimo, da preprečimo oziroma vsaj poskušamo omejiti škodo - po ena strani zaradi suše pa po drugi strani zaradi recimo hudourniških poplav?

Gost: Ja, vsekakor imam občutek, da se je v zadnjih letih ta miselnost o tem, da se moramo kot družba prilagoditi novi realnosti v smislu posledic klimatskih sprememb na vodni krog v Sloveniji precej razširila. Pravzaprav edini učinkovit prijem ta čas … Preprečiti naravnih pojavov ne moremo, lahko se na njih le prilagodimo. In ravno pri sistem zgodnjega opozarjanja v povezavi s strukturami civilne zaščite,  na tem področju se mi zdi, da smo dobro pripravljeni. Dejansko je ta povezava, ki jo vsako leto bolj krepimo, torej, naše dejavnosti zgodnega opozarjanja z dejavnostmi, cilji za zaščito in reševanje, naš neposredni stik, prenos znanja, prenos tudi tehnoloških, tehničnih orodij med nami vzpostavlja možnost hitre reakcije ob takšnih dogodkih.

To je ena od teh ukrepov. Drugo so seveda samozaščitni ukrepi ljudi, ki so prizadeti. No, in moram reči, da tisti ljudje, ki so že bili soočeni s poplavami, živijo na poplavnem območju, bodo prav gotovo v dobi vsaj enega življenja zagotovo soočeni, gotovo soočeni s ponovnimi poplavami. In oni že vedo, kaj poplava pomeni, in se verjetno - upam, da - pripravljajo na to. Kar je pa zelo pomembno, je pa tudi to, da imajo ljudje, ki živijo na poplavnem območju neke vrste čut čuječnosti. Torej, to pomeni, da v primeru, ko so razglašene nevarne razmere, da se pripravijo na to, da imajo pripravljen načrt, kako bodo odreagirali. Da vedo, kam umakniti, na primer, avto na varno pred poplavo. Namreč, svetovne statistike kažejo, da je največ žrtev v poplavah ravno v času reševanja imovine. Največ tega se zgodi ob reševanju avtomobilov. To pomeni, da ja, da se na tak način ljudje seveda prilagodimo. Drugo pa so seveda politike, politike v smislu urejanja poverij rek ne. Zlasti pomembno je to, da so poverja, zlasti hudourniških potokov in pa hudourniških rek, primerno urejena. To pomeni čiščenje gozdov, gozdni red, da se uvaja striktno. Nenazadnje, prostorska politika, tam, kjer je to še možno kaj postoriti. Torej,  bivanjski objekti, infrastrukturni objekti, da se postavijo tam, kjer pač niso ogroženi zaradi vode. Ker moramo se zavedati, da v bodoče bo ena od prilagoditev, bo vodilo prilagoditve. To, da se zavedamo, da vodi, moramo dati prostor, da se ta razlije s čim manj posledicami.

Voditeljica: In morda na tem mestu omeniva še Atlas okolja. Tukaj lahko najdemo karte poplavne nevarnosti in ogroženosti in to je dostopno tudi na spletu, ne?

Gost: Ja, to je dostopno na spletnih straneh Agencije za okolje. In to priporočam vsem tistim, ki na primer kupujejo nepremičnine, da pogledajo, kje njihova nepremičnina leži. Ali je v kakšnem pasu nevarnosti zaradi poplav, da seveda vprašajo sosede, ali so bili že kdaj poplavljeni. In če so enkrat že bili poplavljeni, gotovo bodo še enkrat, najmanj še enkrat.  To so vse informacije, ki seveda lahko vplivajo na to, kako se bodo ljudje odločili pri nakupu zemljišč ali podobno.

Voditeljica: Na območju Slovenije je prepovedano razširjati informacije z napovedmi neugodnih ali nevarnih hidroloških razmer, ki jih ni objavila Agencija za okolje. V dobi dezinformacij in poplavi informacij pa so te verodostojne informacije še toliko bolj pomembne. Kako se soočate s tem? Kako ste pripravljeni na morebitne dezinformacije in manipulacije?

Gost: Ja, vsekakor na način, da aktivno sporočamo informacije. To pomeni, da smo prvi, ki sporočimo informacije, da takoj, ko smo dovolj, pripravljeni na poročanje o morebitnih težavah zaradi poplav, skličemo novinarsko konferenco. Gremo prvi ven s to informacijo. Kar se pa tiče obvladovanja seveda teh manipulacij, kot omenjate, jih pa seveda obvladujemo oziroma odgovarjamo nanje posamično na spoštljiv način in tudi na spoštljiv način želimo odgovarjati na ta, bi rekel, včasih tudi precej čudna vprašanja in pojasnjujemo naravne pojave.

Voditeljica: Je tega veliko, vas ljudje pogosto pišejo, vas kličejo, kontaktirajo?

Gost: Ja, je kar veliko. Mislim, veliko - je prisotno. Je precej tega.

Voditeljica: Kako pa recimo mladi? Po eni strani so izjemno podnebno ozaveščeni se mi zdi, po drugi strani pa morda ne spremljajo toliko tradicionalnih medijev kot recimo ostale generacije. Imate kakšne strategije načine, kako doseči tudi njih?

Gost: Ja, vse naše aktivnosti napovedi opozorila ostale zadeve objavljamo na družbenih omrežjih, vsa ta omrežja, ki jih mladi uporabljajo. Pri svojem komuniciranju poskušamo mlado generacijo doseči z njihovim orodjem. 

Voditeljica: Kot sem omenila že na začetku, ste marca letos prejeli prestižno plaketo za izjemen prispevek k razvoju napovedovanja hidroloških razmer v Sloveniji ter za požrtvovalno strokovno in povezovalno delovanje v poplavnih dogodkih, s katerim ste pomembno prispevali k večji varnosti ljudi in njihovega premoženja. Kako sprejemate to nagrado?

Gost: Te nagrade sem pa res zelo vesel, ampak zlasti zato, ker jo sprejemam pravzaprav v imenu sodelavcev, ne samo v lastnem imenu. Namreč zato, da smo bili prepoznani, so zasluženi številni sodelavci na Agenciji za okolje. Nekako smo uspeli v zadnjih letih ustvariti eno tako homogeno ekipo, ki dejansko živi, bi rekel s pojavom takrat, ko se takšne izredne hidrološke ali pa vremenske razmere začnejo dogajati. Dejansko smo kot en namazan stroj, namazana ekipa, ki deluje homogeno, složno, in mislim, da je ta nagrada tudi nagrada vsem nam, ki omogočamo, ki se trudimo, da so opozorila kar se da natančna in pa pravočasna.

Voditeljica: Lepo ste omenili to ekipno delo. In delo hidrometorološke službe je nujni del javnega servisa, v ozadju pa, kot ste omenili, številni sodelavci, strokovnjaki skrbite za to, da smo vsi obveščeni in živimo bolj varno. Torej, preventiva ni strošek, je naložba v varnost ljudi in družbe?

Gost: Vsekakor. Vsak evro, vsak napor v smislu izboljšanja preventive se bogato obrestuje. Moram povedat, da naš največji dosežek ali pa cilj je, da ob takšnih razmerah, ki so res nepredvidljive, ob silovitih poplavah, da nimamo človeških žrtev. To je naše osnovno vodilo. In v to se dejansko splača vlagat, tako na področju razvoja kadra, torej mlajših sodelavcev, ki se uvajajo v ta posel, kot pri tehnološkem razvoju.

Voditeljica: Začela sva z nekaj kratkimi vprašanji za ogrevanje, pa tudi končajva z nečim podobnim. Za konec poglejva v zakulisje. Kdo vse je Janez Polajner in kaj najraje počnete?

Gost: Ja, lahko bi rekel Slovenec, ki ima to srečo, da je njegovo delo zelo podobno njegovim tudi najljubšim opravilom, prostočasnim dejavnostim. Da se njegovo delo prepleta z njegovimi prostočasnimi dejavnostmi in da praktično tudi svoj prosti čas preživljam na vodi, dobesedno na vodi in je to, bi rekel, miselni krog, ki je povezan najprej s poslovno-službenimi obveznostmi, vendar se ne konča, ko gremo domov iz službe, ampak kar traja.

Voditeljica: Se nekako preliva iz nekega športnega udejstvovanja, pa potem v to strokovnost.

Gost: Ja, že kot mlad fant, živel sem namreč na Prulah blizu Ljubljanice, sem bil vedno na vodi z vsemi možnimi plovnimi sredstvi, narejenimi doma, seveda. In potem me je ta želja prinesla vvrhunski šport v kajaku na divjih vodah in takrat sem začel razmišljati, kako bi mi izvedeli za nekaj dni vnaprej, kje bodo ugodni pogoji za treninge, kje, kako bo se obnašala voda. Poleg tega sem v tistem obdobju, pa tudi še sedaj se ukvarjam z športi, torej, s surfanjem, pa me je vedno zanimalo, kdaj bo dovolj močan veter, da bomo lahko šli surfat. Želja po tem, da bi vedel, da bi znal pripraviti neko orodje, da bom vedel, kako se bo pretakala voda ali kako bo pihal veter v prihodnjih dneh me je pripeljala na takratni Hidrometeorološki zavod, potem na Agencijo za okolje. 

Voditeljica: Omenili ste, že od otroštva povezani z vodo? Kaj vam torej pomeni voda?

Gost: Ja, glede na to, da imamo to srečo v Sloveniji, da je voda, da imamo dovolj vode, da imamo dovolj vode za preživetje, pitne vode, je voda pravzaprav vir sprostitve. Praktično, kot sem že omenil, ves prosti čas sem dobesedno na vodi.

Voditeljica: Katera oblika vode vas najbolj prevzame. Je to sneg so to brzice, led, dež?

Gost: Pravzaprav skoraj vse. Sneg, seveda brzice tudi, še najbolj morda, pa tudi lepo nakodrana morska površina z nekaj belimi penicami. Ja, vse je v harmoniji, vse je v ravnotežju. Mislim, da to velja tako za posameznika, da ima uravnoteženo poslovno in privatno življenje, kot tudi na vseh ostalih področjih družbe, da ohranjamo neko ravnovesje.

Voditeljica: Janez Polajner, najlepša hvala za pogovor, za vsebinsko zelo zanimiv in bogat pogovor. Vprašan je še mnogo, zato ob priliki zagotovo nadaljujeva. 

Hvala pa tudi vam spoštovane poslušalke in poslušalci gledalke in gledalci. Vladni GOVSI podkast lahko spremljate na vseh aplikacijah za podkaste in na vladnem youtube kanalu.

[ENGLISH VERSION]

Host: Hello and welcome to a new episode of the government podcast GOVSI, which we prepare for you at the Government Communication Office of the Republic of Slovenia. I am Petra Prešeren Golob. Water has a special place in Slovenia. It is not only a natural resource; without water we cannot imagine our development, health, safety and quality of life. Nor the preservation of the environment, a considerable part of tourism and sporting activity. At the same time, water can also be one of the greatest natural threats.

A large part of the damage caused by natural disasters in our country is connected with water, especially with torrential floods and the landslides associated with them, which is why timely and reliable hydrometeorological forecasts are crucial for the safety of all of us, our homes and property, and the entire community.

The guest of today's episode is an expert who has been dealing for more than three decades with how to understand water and its power, and how to warn about it in time. With us is an exceptionally interesting interlocutor, a recognizable face of the Slovenian Environment Agency, hydrologist Janez Polajnar, who this year also received the highest award for public servants for outstanding work achievements. Welcome.

The starting point for today's conversation is the upcoming third anniversary of the worst floods in Slovenia's history, but we will begin a little differently. To warm up a little, a few short questions to check what you prefer. Ice or snow?

Guest: Snow.

Host: Sea or river?

Guest: You caught me there ... Both, actually.

Host: Waterfall or rapid?

Guest: Rapid.

Host: Moderate rain or sunshine after a storm?

Guest: Sunshine after a storm.

Host: And finally: preparing forecasts in the office or field observation?

Guest: I could say preparing forecasts in the office.

Host: I thought perhaps the last question would be the hardest, but you could not decide on the second one. So, as mentioned, you have more than 30 years of experience behind you in the field of monitoring, studying and analyzing waters and warning of dangerous phenomena. What all do you do when you are not in front of the cameras?

Guest: As a hydrologist ... So, the profession of hydrologist is a rather branched profession. When we are not in front of the camera, then it is usually just one of us; that is, I would say, the top part of all the work that we have done before that. Otherwise, the profession of hydrologist includes work that is connected both with fieldwork, which means carrying out and preparing measurements on watercourses. This work also includes analytical work, when we analyze hydrological conditions, when we also prepare tools, hydrological models, for forecasting discharges, rivers, various statistical analyses regarding the water abundance of rivers in Slovenia. And, of course, forecasting as well; that is the operational part, when every day, in fact all days of the year, we forecast or keep watch over the waters and forecast what the hydrological conditions in Slovenia will be.

Host: Hydrology is a very interdisciplinary field. What advantages do you have as a geographer in monitoring hydrological conditions?

Guest: Yes, I would say that it is a certain breadth, isn't it? Because hydrology, or forecasting river discharges, the forecast, is, I would say ... We have to be like a kind of amphibian; we have to know both the field of meteorology and hydrology, and geography in particular contributes to this by offering a broad insight into the spatial characteristics of Slovenia. Because Slovenia is simply so diverse that these differences in hydrological spheres, different parts of Slovenia, are actually very, I would say, really interesting and diverse, and one has to adapt to that. And here geography is what gives you a basis for a better understanding of hydrological conditions.

Host: As mentioned, with your professional work you contributed to the establishment of a modern service for forecasting hydrological conditions in Slovenia. This hydrological service is not only warning before a natural disaster. What all is its role and added value, then also, for example, for farmers, residents, for the economy?

Guest: The main task is warning of dangers and keeping watch over hydrological conditions. Of course, it also offers information on how to manage water and how to use water for the economy, for example for electric power facilities, for agriculture in connection with irrigation, for example, for tourism in connection with navigation on rivers, in connection also with navigation at sea, not least. We also treat water as a landscape element. So, in all areas of social life these pieces of information, which we provide to the wider public and, of course, to professional services with the help of analyses and of course current data that are directly accessible, are important.

Host: These decades of experience of yours can also give us a certain historical insight. What, in your opinion, has changed the most in forecasting and warning of natural disasters? Was it knowledge, technology, perhaps the way of thinking?

Guest: I could say both, actually. In the last 20 years, technology in this field has really made extraordinary progress. We began using the most modern forecasting systems, models, we connect with various related services across Europe, and this somehow strengthens this community of forecasting in the field of meteorology and hydrology. On the other hand, there is also a kind of awareness in society that we are in an area or in a time when these climate changes are showing themselves more and more. It is precisely this, I would say, awareness of society that we must also change the way, the way of thinking about coexistence with water, that is shown in the fact that this development brought to us by technology, and by the way of thinking, has been able, I would say, to bring us to a higher level than decades ago.

Host: A lot is also being said these days about the use of artificial intelligence. Is it already being used in forecasting, modeling and the like?

Guest: Yes, we too are already using forecasting techniques with the help of artificial intelligence. However, these techniques are currently still in a trial period with us. This means that we use them as a parallel tool and verify them, and we began using artificial intelligence methods in forecasting sea dynamics, i.e. in forecasting sea tides and, of course, with that, warning of sea floods. Recently, however, we have also been using artificial intelligence in forecasting river discharges.

And as said, we still somehow keep watch over this by controlling the results and comparing them with those classic physical models.

Host: Are they reliable?

Guest: Yes, in some situations yes, in some not. So artificial intelligence is not omnipotent; it needs some time to learn all situations and, as said, is still in the testing phase.

Host: The severe floods three years ago are the starting point for our conversation today. At that time, in our area, we experienced how important this timely warning before a natural disaster is. If you relive those days once more, what perhaps remained most in your memory? What perhaps surprised you, what could have gone differently?

Guest: That summer of 2023 was special. It was not only the floods that happened that night, but the whole course of events had already begun in July. Namely, the month of July was extremely wet. I remember storm situations already in mid-June, and then toward the end of June, when these storms actually began to form in another part of Europe, that is, in France, in Switzerland, one of them also in Corsica, and then ... We monitored them. In the morning we detected them, for example one storm that formed in the south of Corsica, and then we followed it for eight hours, and after eight hours it was with us. And it was precisely that storm, I think on 1 August, that brought a tornado in Ilirska Bistrica. And these storms occurred, such strong storms with downpours, for several days in July. Namely, at that time the weather situation was such that the Mediterranean area with the sea was strongly overheated. The water in the Gulf of Trieste was around 30 °C, while north of the Alps cold air persisted for a long time. And that was such a strong dividing line between overheated air and cold air. That is why strong precipitation often occurred in this area, which moved toward Slovenia with high-altitude winds and then deposited this precipitation in Slovenia. And at that time summer and autumn merged, that is, a summer type of weather with autumn precipitation and, of course, with autumn runoff. Namely, in that time before the floods, the channels of Slovenian rivers were practically full, as in the middle of autumn or in the middle of autumn.

And onto these full river channels then came such a typical autumn weather situation on that night from 3 to 4 August, when in some places more than two hundred liters of rain per square meter fell in less than six hours. This was the peculiarity - the merging of the summer weather situation and autumn water abundance.

Host: Did anything particularly surprise you then? Did anything particularly remain in your memory?

Guest: We expected these floods, or this kind of unusual floods. Already several days in advance it was indicated that something, that something special would happen. But we did not know exactly in what way it would manifest itself. Surprised? Certainly the magnitude of the phenomenon surprised us. Because our generation does not remember such a phenomenon; we also did not have records of such phenomena, so this was something completely new. We knew that something special would happen, but how exactly it would be reflected, we did not know. And that was perhaps the surprise that was truly exceptional.

Host: At that time a large part of Slovenia remained under water. A state of emergency was declared. Many institutions cooperated, decision-making was then transferred to the government level. What did that mean at the time for ARSO, which is also on the front lines in natural disasters of smaller dimensions? At that time there was a huge amount of coordination and cooperation, wasn't there?

Guest: Yes, exactly that, when the Communication Office took certain things into its own hands, we actually got the possibility of connecting different institutions in one place. I remember then that we often held press conferences, and because of that we had the possibility to invite different institutions that were, of course, affected by the floods at the time, so that they could explain their views or their instructions to the population. That was the added value, that from one point, at that time the press conferences were held at the Environment Agency, we could actually tell people or the public all the relevant information.

Host: And in fact all the media, or at least the public, had in one place all relevant, reliable interlocutors. You mentioned these, I will say, the surprising nature of these floods or the scale. Torrential floods are unpredictable, there is little time for warning. Can floods such as those three years ago be forecast better? Or is it a development that cannot be forecast exactly and cannot be controlled?

Guest: We will never be able to forecast accurately enough, especially not torrential floods. These are still the toughest nut. We can forecast accurately enough, for example, sea floods or karst floods. They appear more gradually, are more predictable. Whereas torrential floods, we can actually foresee the type, I would say, of precipitation pattern that will come over our places. This is somewhere 36 to 24 hours before the event, but we cannot precisely locate the catchment or part of the catchment where a torrential phenomenon will occur in this small area. And because of that we then warn, of course we roughly locate these areas in Slovenia, but we certainly cannot say - in this valley there will be a torrential flood, and in the neighboring one there will not - because the relief here in Slovenia is so diverse and rich that the watersheds are very sharp, so we prefer to warn of torrential floods over a wider area, in several catchments, and then of course during the event, or a few hours before the event, we can already locate more precisely where the torrential flood will occur. But it is the case that a torrential flood can develop within 20 minutes to one hour during intense precipitation. So there is very little time for warning.

Host: Since you have just mentioned warning - SI-Alarm is one such tool that is certainly very useful in informing people. This March, during the Planica ski flying events, there was this strong storm with windthrow, and then we also used it in practice for the first time. How did you cooperate in establishing this method of alerting?

Guest: Yes, in fact SI-ALARM is somehow an extension of our warnings. In the case when we issue a red warning, then we also coordinate with the Administration for Civil Protection and Disaster Relief. And in this specific case we declared a red warning for strong gusts of northerly wind for different areas of Slovenia. And for the needs of SI-ALARM we then prepared a list of municipalities in these areas, in which the Administration for Civil Protection and Disaster Relief then, with the help of SI_ALARM technology, provided an SMS message.

Host: Given that in recent years we have been witnessing more and more of these extreme weather events, and there will probably be even more of this in the future due to climate change - are you worried that if there are more of these warnings, people will no longer take them so seriously?

Guest: Yes, here there is a very thin line between hitting the right time, the right warning, and the warning being unnecessary, as we say. We also keep statistics on this every year and also have a quality index, which speaks about how accurate we are in warning. But it is always necessary, of course, to make sure that these warnings are not too frequent. That is why usually a red warning, according to some recommendations of the European Union's Meteoalarm, should be issued once a year or, of course, if necessary, several times. And yet - these are rare events when a red weather or hydrological warning is issued, and then of course it must be taken very seriously.

Host: And when these extreme hydrometeorological phenomena happen, which also threaten lives, your service is somehow a slalom on white water, if I may use kayaking jargon? Given that you were once the coach of the national team in whitewater kayaking and canoeing and that in this role you also took part in the Olympic Games in Barcelona, among other things, how important are these experiences with such stressful events? Somehow it seems, when you communicate with the public, that you always communicate very clearly and calmly. How much do these experiences help you?

Guest: Yes, I have to say, quite a lot. Namely, in top-level sport it holds true that an excess of information is unproductive. So, the information that comes from the coach to the competitor must be short, clear and meaningful. Any excess, I would say, of explanations is unproductive at that time. I learned these skills in working in top-level sport and indeed, when we have such conditions with us, say, a press conference or the issuing of a red-level warning, I have the feeling as if I am before a competition. I would say that the way of thinking is similar. This means that you focus on what is really important that you have to say. That you disregard, I would say, the grey noise of the influence of the surroundings, and of course that you are aware that in that moment you will prepare the answer that is most possible at that moment. And that behind you there is, of course, a team of colleagues with whom we prepared the content together, and that behind me there is also, of course, the institution, that is the Environment Agency, and in that way I think that the information that reaches the public is more effective.

Host: You share an office with another very recognizable media face, Brane Gregorčič. We know you both because you bring news about the weather, which is not necessarily always good news - as you mentioned, many times these are crisis situations. And yet you are very popular in the public and very respected. You have already mentioned something about the success of this communication. What else do you take into account in this? You said, all these noises are put aside, clear, accurate information ...

Guest: I could say that both my colleague Brane Gregorčič and I somehow live in the service, if I may put it that way. This means that even our leisure activities are in some way connected - his with the weather, mine more with waters. And this is a kind of intertwining, I would say, of private and business life. In a way, we both live with this subject matter, even when we are not at work. And perhaps this is also one of the reasons that it goes quite well for us.

Host: You mentioned that in the background there are a huge number of analyses, forecasts, modeling ... How do you know how to present all these data, which are professionally quite complicated for us laypeople, to the public in an understandable, lay way?

Guest: Yes, that is usually the challenge. We must know that this forecast, which someone reads on the radio or someone says, is only the cream on top of the cake. A very narrow or narrow segment of everything that is needed for such a forecast to come about. A large number of colleagues are involved here - from those who measure, who carry out measurements in the field, to analysts, to those who take care of technical support at the Agency, so that in the end a weather or hydrological forecast comes about. Yes, a great challenge for us is to prepare this hydrological forecast in an understandable way. In an understandable way that is reasonable for a wider circle of people. Of course, we also prepare forecasts or warnings for professional services that are more specific, but for general use we strive for the text to be as popularized as possible.

Host: And that is quite an art, isn't it?

Guest: Sometimes it really is, yes. Sometimes situations are so composed, complex, that it is difficult to put them into words in a few sentences. But it can be done.

Host: You have repeated several times that precisely because of these weather changes, because of global warming and its impact on the water cycle in Slovenia, there will be more and more extreme phenomena. And already this year we have seen that, haven't we, it is no different - first this storm with windthrow, recently a considerable drought ...

You mentioned that some rivers had historically low discharges in April, and then the Ice Saints came, bringing strong storms with wind, in some places also hail ... This year has already started quite lively, hasn't it?

Guest: Yes, actually ... Of course, lively. I will not say that this is something special, that this is something exceptional, and yet what actually worries us most at this time is the smaller amount of snow in recent years. Because a smaller amount of snow also means smaller water reserves for later, for the summer drought months. Some winters are better, some worse. This year the winter was somewhere around average or a little below average. But when we speak about drought discharges or low discharges, they were very pronounced this spring. The low discharge of, for example, the Mura River, which mainly has its hinterland in neighboring Austria, where this winter there was really little snow in the areas of the Mura catchment from where the Mura is also fed. And also elsewhere in Slovenia, in fact, we recorded, throughout the winter until May, until today, in fact, until these days, below-average river discharges. As said, only 40 percent of water was flowing in the month of April. We will see how this will be over the summer, and yet this lack of water is sometimes even more worrying. Because that still does not mean that torrential floods cannot then also happen. They can always happen; even if there is very little water, torrential floods can occur during intense downpours.

Host: Is this forecast of a relatively early drought already in spring then also a bad starting point for the summer? Can we then expect, on the basis of this, also less water in the summer?

Guest: At this moment we cannot state that with certainty. But the fact is that certain meteorological models that are long-term, although their reliability is of course not actually great, nevertheless indicate the possibility that this year's summer would be about one degree warmer than usual and also somewhat less wet than usual. This means that there are some indications that we could be faced with heat waves, less precipitation. Given that we are not very richly supplied with water at this time, there is also the possibility that we will face summer drought conditions.

Host: What in your opinion is crucial for us as a country, individuals, society, to prepare appropriately, to train ourselves, to prevent or at least try to limit damage - on the one hand due to drought, and on the other hand due to, say, torrential floods?

Guest: Yes, I certainly have the feeling that in recent years this mindset that we as a society must adapt to the new reality in terms of the consequences of climate change on the water cycle in Slovenia has spread quite a lot. In fact, the only effective approach at this time ... We cannot prevent natural phenomena; we can only adapt to them. And precisely in the early warning system in connection with civil protection structures, in this area it seems to me that we are well prepared. In fact, this connection, which we strengthen more every year, that is, our early warning activities with the activities, goals for protection and rescue, our direct contact, the transfer of knowledge, the transfer also of technological, technical tools between us, establishes the possibility of a quick reaction during such events.

This is one of these measures. The second is, of course, the self-protection measures of the people who are affected. And I have to say that those people who have already faced floods, who live in a flood area, will certainly, within at least one lifetime, certainly be faced, certainly faced with repeated floods. And they already know what a flood means and are probably - I hope - preparing for that. What is very important is also that people who live in a flood area have a kind of sense of alertness. So this means that in the case when dangerous conditions are declared, they prepare for it, that they have a plan ready for how they will react. That they know where to move, for example, the car to safety before a flood. Namely, world statistics show that the greatest number of victims in floods are precisely at the time of rescuing property. Most of this happens when rescuing cars. This means that, yes, in this way people of course adapt. The third, of course, are policies, policies in terms of arranging river catchments, aren't they. It is especially important that catchments, especially of torrential streams and torrential rivers, are properly arranged. This means clearing forests, forest order, that it is introduced strictly. Not least, spatial planning policy, where it is still possible to do something. So, residential buildings, infrastructure facilities, that they are placed where they are not endangered by water. Because we must be aware that in the future one of the adaptations, the guideline of adaptation, will be this: that we are aware that we must give water space, so that it can spill out with as few consequences as possible.

Host: And perhaps at this point let us also mention the Environmental Atlas. Here we can find flood hazard and flood risk maps, and this is also accessible online, isn't it?

Guest: Yes, this is accessible on the websites of the Environment Agency. And I recommend this to all those who, for example, are buying real estate, that they look at where their real estate lies. Whether it is in any hazard belt due to floods, and of course that they ask the neighbors whether they have ever been flooded. And if they have already been flooded once, they certainly will be again, at least once more. These are all pieces of information that of course can influence how people will decide when buying land or the like.

Host: In the territory of Slovenia it is prohibited to disseminate information with forecasts of unfavorable or dangerous hydrological conditions that has not been published by the Environment Agency. In the age of disinformation and a flood of information, these credible pieces of information are all the more important. How do you deal with this? How are you prepared for possible disinformation and manipulation?

Guest: Yes, certainly in such a way that we actively communicate information. This means that we are the first to communicate information, that as soon as we are sufficiently prepared to report on possible problems due to floods, we call a press conference. We go out first with this information. As for managing, of course, these manipulations, as you mention, we manage them or respond to them individually in a respectful way, and also in a respectful way we wish to answer these, I would say, sometimes also quite strange questions, and we explain natural phenomena.

Host: Is there a lot of that, do people often write to you, call you, contact you?

Guest: Yes, there is quite a lot. I mean, a lot - it is present. There is quite a lot of it.

Host: What about, for example, young people? On the one hand they are extremely climate-aware, it seems to me; on the other hand perhaps they do not follow traditional media as much as, say, other generations. Do you have any strategies, ways, how to reach them as well?

Guest: Yes, all our forecast activities, warnings, other matters, we publish on social networks, on all these networks that young people use. In our communication we try to reach the young generation with their own tool.

Host: As I already mentioned at the beginning, in March this year you received a prestigious plaque for your outstanding contribution to the development of forecasting hydrological conditions in Slovenia and for your devoted professional and connecting work during flood events, with which you made an important contribution to greater safety of people and their property. How do you receive this award?

Guest: I am truly very happy about this award, but especially because I actually receive it on behalf of my colleagues, not only in my own name. Namely, many colleagues at the Environment Agency deserve credit for our being recognized. Somehow in recent years we have managed to create one such homogeneous team that actually lives, I would say, with the phenomenon when such extraordinary hydrological or weather conditions begin to occur. We are actually like one well-oiled machine, a well-oiled team that works homogeneously, harmoniously, and I think that this award is also an award to all of us who make possible, who strive, that the warnings are as accurate and timely as possible.

Host: You nicely mentioned this teamwork. And the work of the hydrometeorological service is an essential part of public service, and in the background, as you mentioned, many colleagues and experts take care that we are all informed and live more safely. So, prevention is not a cost, it is an investment in the safety of people and society?

Guest: Certainly. Every euro, every effort in terms of improving prevention pays off richly. I have to say that our greatest achievement or goal is that in such conditions, which are truly unpredictable, during violent floods, we have no human casualties. That is our basic guiding principle. And it is truly worth investing in this, both in the field of staff development, that is, younger colleagues who are being introduced into this business, and in technological development.

Host: We began with a few short questions to warm up, so let us also end with something similar. To finish, let us look behind the scenes. Who all is Janez Polajner and what do you most like doing?

Guest: Yes, I could say a Slovenian who has the good fortune that his work is very similar also to his favorite tasks, leisure activities. That his work intertwines with his leisure activities and that practically I also spend my free time on water, literally on water, and this is, I would say, a circle of thought that is connected first with business-service obligations, but it does not end when we go home from work, it simply continues.

Host: It somehow flows over from a kind of sporting activity, and then into this expertise.

Guest: Yes, already as a young boy, I lived on Prule near the Ljubljanica, I was always on the water with all possible floating craft, made at home, of course. And then this desire brought me into top-level sport in whitewater kayaking, and at that time I began to think about how we would know a few days in advance where there would be favorable conditions for training, where and how the water would behave. In addition, in that period, and also still now, I engage in sports, that is, surfing, and I was always interested in when the wind would be strong enough for us to go surfing. The desire to know, to be able to prepare a tool so that I would know how the water would flow or how the wind would blow in the coming days, brought me to the then Hydrometeorological Institute, and later to the Environment Agency.

Host: You mentioned that you have been connected with water since childhood. So what does water mean to you?

Guest: Yes, given that we are lucky in Slovenia that there is water, that we have enough water, that we have enough water for survival, drinking water, water is actually a source of relaxation. Practically, as I have already mentioned, I spend all my free time literally on water.

Host: Which form of water captivates you the most? Is it snow, are they rapids, ice, rain?

Guest: Actually almost all of them. Snow, of course, rapids too, perhaps most of all, and also a nicely rippled sea surface with a few whitecaps. Yes, everything is in harmony, everything is in balance. I think this applies both to the individual, to having a balanced business and private life, and also to all other areas of society, that we maintain a certain balance.

Host: Janez Polajner, thank you very much for the conversation, for a substantively very interesting and rich conversation. There are still many questions, so on another occasion we will certainly continue.

Thank you also to you, dear listeners and viewers. You can follow the government podcast GOVSI on all podcast applications and on the government's YouTube channel.